{ "metadata": { "modelVersion": "nagareyama-child-cohort-hybrid-v1.0.0", "updatedAt": "2026-07-15", "actualThrough": "2026-04-01", "forecastThrough": "2032-04-01", "basisDate": "毎年4月1日", "retrievedAtBySource": { "nagareyama-town-single-age-population": "2026-07-15", "nagareyama-children-plan-2025": "2026-07-15", "nagareyama-licensed-childcare-facilities": "2026-07-15", "nagareyama-licensed-childcare-facilities-detail-xlsx": "2026-07-15", "nagareyama-licensed-childcare-facilities-detail": "2026-07-15", "chiba-private-kindergartens-nagareyama": "2026-07-15", "nagareyama-free-early-childhood-facilities": "2026-07-15", "nagareyama-city-population-projection-2018": "2026-07-15", "nagareyama-statistical-book-r7": "2026-07-15", "ipss-municipal-projection-2023": "2026-07-15", "ipss-survival-rates-2023": "2026-07-15", "ipss-net-migration-rates-2023": "2026-07-15", "ipss-child-woman-ratio-2023": "2026-07-15", "ipss-municipal-methodology-2023": "2026-07-15", "ipss-municipal-births-2025": "2026-07-15", "ipss-municipal-births-paper-2025": "2026-07-15" } }, "model": { "id": "nagareyama-child-cohort-hybrid", "version": "nagareyama-child-cohort-hybrid-v1.0.0", "title": "流山市ローカル・コーホート／社人研リベース・ハイブリッド", "trainedThrough": "2026-04-01", "forecastThrough": "2032-04-01", "updatedAt": "2026-07-15", "inputSourceIds": [ "nagareyama-town-single-age-population", "ipss-municipal-projection-2023", "ipss-municipal-births-2025", "ipss-survival-rates-2023", "ipss-net-migration-rates-2023", "ipss-child-woman-ratio-2023" ], "parameters": { "cohortRatioWindowYears": 10, "winsorLowerPercentile": 10, "winsorUpperPercentile": 90, "backtestFirstOrigin": 2015, "backtestLastOrigin": 2020, "maxBacktestHorizonYears": 6, "ageZeroSelectedModels": "persistence,birth_projection", "ageZeroWeights": "persistence:0.502985,birth_projection:0.497015", "hybridWeights": "{\"0_14\": {\"ipss\": 0.23507642098572076, \"ipssMae\": 3576.1466426170773, \"local\": 0.7649235790142791, \"localMae\": 1099.0218849703297}, 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2019, "absoluteError": 428.2 }, { "originYear": 2020, "targetYear": 2024, "horizon": 4, "candidate": "birth_projection", "predicted": 2147.927, "actual": 2019, "absoluteError": 128.927 }, { "originYear": 2020, "targetYear": 2024, "horizon": 4, "candidate": "ipss_0_4_trend", "predicted": 2149.291, "actual": 2019, "absoluteError": 130.291 }, { "originYear": 2020, "targetYear": 2025, "horizon": 5, "candidate": "persistence", "predicted": 2159.0, "actual": 1899, "absoluteError": 260.0 }, { "originYear": 2020, "targetYear": 2025, "horizon": 5, "candidate": "average3", "predicted": 2110.0, "actual": 1899, "absoluteError": 211.0 }, { "originYear": 2020, "targetYear": 2025, "horizon": 5, "candidate": "average5", "predicted": 2036.8, "actual": 1899, "absoluteError": 137.8 }, { "originYear": 2020, "targetYear": 2025, "horizon": 5, "candidate": "trend3", "predicted": 2419.0, "actual": 1899, "absoluteError": 520.0 }, { "originYear": 2020, "targetYear": 2025, "horizon": 5, "candidate": "trend5", "predicted": 2515.6, "actual": 1899, "absoluteError": 616.6 }, { "originYear": 2020, "targetYear": 2025, "horizon": 5, "candidate": "birth_projection", "predicted": 2145.167, "actual": 1899, "absoluteError": 246.167 }, { "originYear": 2020, "targetYear": 2025, "horizon": 5, "candidate": "ipss_0_4_trend", "predicted": 2146.863, "actual": 1899, "absoluteError": 247.863 }, { "originYear": 2020, "targetYear": 2026, "horizon": 6, "candidate": "persistence", "predicted": 2159.0, "actual": 1910, "absoluteError": 249.0 }, { "originYear": 2020, "targetYear": 2026, "horizon": 6, "candidate": "average3", "predicted": 2110.0, "actual": 1910, "absoluteError": 200.0 }, { "originYear": 2020, "targetYear": 2026, "horizon": 6, "candidate": "average5", "predicted": 2036.8, "actual": 1910, "absoluteError": 126.8 }, { "originYear": 2020, "targetYear": 2026, "horizon": 6, "candidate": "trend3", "predicted": 2470.5, "actual": 1910, "absoluteError": 560.5 }, { "originYear": 2020, "targetYear": 2026, "horizon": 6, "candidate": "trend5", "predicted": 2584.0, "actual": 1910, "absoluteError": 674.0 }, { "originYear": 2020, "targetYear": 2026, "horizon": 6, "candidate": "birth_projection", "predicted": 2142.411, "actual": 1910, "absoluteError": 232.411 }, { "originYear": 2020, "targetYear": 2026, "horizon": 6, "candidate": "ipss_0_4_trend", "predicted": 2144.436, "actual": 1910, "absoluteError": 234.436 } ] }, "seriesDefinitions": [ { "id": "resident_0_2", "label": "0～2歳", "universe": "resident_population", "ageRange": [ 0, 2 ], "overlapGroup": null, "aggregationGroup": "resident_population", "canBeSummed": true, "sourceIds": [ "nagareyama-town-single-age-population" ] }, { "id": "resident_3_5", "label": "3～5歳", "universe": "resident_population", "ageRange": [ 3, 5 ], "overlapGroup": null, "aggregationGroup": "resident_population", "canBeSummed": true, "sourceIds": [ "nagareyama-town-single-age-population" ] }, { "id": "resident_6_11", "label": "6～11歳", "universe": "resident_population", "ageRange": [ 6, 11 ], "overlapGroup": null, "aggregationGroup": "resident_population", "canBeSummed": true, "sourceIds": [ "nagareyama-town-single-age-population" ] }, { "id": "resident_12_14", "label": "12～14歳", "universe": "resident_population", "ageRange": [ 12, 14 ], "overlapGroup": null, "aggregationGroup": "resident_population", "canBeSummed": true, "sourceIds": [ "nagareyama-town-single-age-population" ] }, { "id": "service_type1", "label": "1号認定", "universe": "early_childhood_service_demand", "ageRange": [ 3, 5 ], "overlapGroup": null, "aggregationGroup": "administrative_services", "canBeSummed": true, "sourceIds": [ "nagareyama-children-plan-2025" ] }, { "id": "service_type2", "label": "2号認定", "universe": "early_childhood_service_demand", "ageRange": [ 3, 5 ], "overlapGroup": "preschool_service", "aggregationGroup": "administrative_services", "canBeSummed": false, "sourceIds": [ "nagareyama-children-plan-2025" ] }, { "id": "service_type3_age0", "label": "3号認定・0歳", "universe": "early_childhood_service_demand", "ageRange": [ 0, 0 ], "overlapGroup": null, "aggregationGroup": "administrative_services", "canBeSummed": true, "sourceIds": [ "nagareyama-children-plan-2025" ] }, { "id": "service_type3_age1", "label": "3号認定・1歳", "universe": "early_childhood_service_demand", "ageRange": [ 1, 1 ], "overlapGroup": null, "aggregationGroup": "administrative_services", "canBeSummed": true, "sourceIds": [ "nagareyama-children-plan-2025" ] }, { "id": "service_type3_age2", "label": "3号認定・2歳", "universe": "early_childhood_service_demand", "ageRange": [ 2, 2 ], "overlapGroup": null, "aggregationGroup": "administrative_services", "canBeSummed": true, "sourceIds": [ "nagareyama-children-plan-2025" ] }, { "id": "public_elementary", "label": "市立小学校", "universe": "public_school_enrollment", "ageRange": [ 6, 11 ], "overlapGroup": "elementary_children", "aggregationGroup": "administrative_services", "canBeSummed": false, "sourceIds": [ "school-projection-primary-r8" ] }, { "id": "public_junior_high", "label": "市立中学校", "universe": "public_school_enrollment", "ageRange": [ 12, 14 ], "overlapGroup": null, "aggregationGroup": "administrative_services", "canBeSummed": true, "sourceIds": [ "school-projection-secondary-r8" ] }, { "id": "after_school", "label": "学童クラブ", "universe": "after_school_usage", "ageRange": [ 6, 11 ], "overlapGroup": "elementary_children", "aggregationGroup": "administrative_services", "canBeSummed": false, "sourceIds": [ "nagareyama-children-plan-2025" ] } ], "simulatorSeries": { "resident": { "2026": { "resident_0_2": 6029, "resident_3_5": 7038, "resident_6_11": 15135, "resident_12_14": 6428 }, "2027": { "resident_0_2": 6075, "resident_3_5": 6927, "resident_6_11": 15240, "resident_12_14": 6769 }, "2028": { "resident_0_2": 6175, "resident_3_5": 6722, "resident_6_11": 15250, "resident_12_14": 7179 }, "2029": { "resident_0_2": 6178, "resident_3_5": 6733, "resident_6_11": 15116, "resident_12_14": 7572 }, "2030": { "resident_0_2": 6161, "resident_3_5": 6754, "resident_6_11": 15016, "resident_12_14": 7715 }, "2031": { "resident_0_2": 6184, "resident_3_5": 6879, "resident_6_11": 14788, "resident_12_14": 7732 }, "2032": { "resident_0_2": 6206, "resident_3_5": 6904, "resident_6_11": 14586, "resident_12_14": 7800 } }, "service": { "2026": { "service_type1": 1885, "service_type2": 5161, "service_type3_age0": 421, "service_type3_age1": 1510, "service_type3_age2": 1682, "public_elementary": 14698, "public_junior_high": 5488, "after_school": null }, "2027": { "service_type1": 1783, "service_type2": 5329, "service_type3_age0": 434, "service_type3_age1": 1556, "service_type3_age2": 1734, "public_elementary": 14747, "public_junior_high": 5736, "after_school": null }, "2028": { "service_type1": 1690, "service_type2": 5505, "service_type3_age0": 447, "service_type3_age1": 1604, "service_type3_age2": 1787, "public_elementary": 14708, "public_junior_high": 6042, "after_school": null }, "2029": { "service_type1": 1602, "service_type2": 5689, "service_type3_age0": 461, "service_type3_age1": 1654, "service_type3_age2": 1842, "public_elementary": 14524, "public_junior_high": 6375, "after_school": null }, "2030": { "service_type1": 1659, "service_type2": 5563, "service_type3_age0": 451, "service_type3_age1": 1617, "service_type3_age2": 1814, "public_elementary": 14315, "public_junior_high": 6489, "after_school": null }, "2031": { "service_type1": 1690, "service_type2": 5666, "service_type3_age0": 452, "service_type3_age1": 1623, "service_type3_age2": 1821, "public_elementary": 14009, "public_junior_high": 6482, "after_school": null }, "2032": { "service_type1": 1696, "service_type2": 5686, "service_type3_age0": 454, "service_type3_age1": 1629, "service_type3_age2": 1828, "public_elementary": 13617, "public_junior_high": 6541, "after_school": null } } }, "dataQualityIssues": [ { "id": "child-plan-2024-placement-total-discrepancy", "datasetId": "nagareyama-children-plan-2025", "publishedValue": 14188, "computedValue": 14189, "difference": 1, "severity": "warning", "status": "source_discrepancy", "note": "年齢別就園等状況の各構成値合計と、同ページに掲載された就学前児童数に1人の差がある。元資料の値をそのまま保持する。", "sourceIds": [ "nagareyama-children-plan-2025" ], "sourceId": "nagareyama-children-plan-2025", "forecastKind": "unknown", "universe": "resident_population", "basisDate": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-07-15", "methodVersion": null, "qualityFlags": [ "source_discrepancy" ] }, { "id": "child-plan-2019-elementary-total-discrepancy", "datasetId": "nagareyama-children-plan-2025", "publishedValue": 11317, "computedValue": 11564, "difference": 247, "severity": "warning", "status": "source_discrepancy", "note": "2019年の公立小学校11,317人と私立小学校247人の算術合計は11,564人だが、資料掲載の小学校合計は11,317人。公表値を書き換えない。", "sourceIds": [ "nagareyama-children-plan-2025" ], "sourceId": "nagareyama-children-plan-2025", "forecastKind": "unknown", "universe": "resident_population", "basisDate": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-07-15", "methodVersion": null, "qualityFlags": [ "source_discrepancy" ] }, { "id": "childcare-detail-xlsx-csv-code-structure-difference", "datasetId": "nagareyama-licensed-childcare-facilities-detail", "severity": "info", "status": "schema_change", "publishedValue": 112, "computedValue": 106, "difference": -6, "note": "詳細CSVは分園を別行・別コードで持つ一方、詳細Excelは本園シート内に分園情報を収録するため、園コード集合とシート数は単純一致しない。共通コード率を検証し、差分コードをマニフェストへ記録する。", "sourceIds": [ "nagareyama-licensed-childcare-facilities-detail-xlsx", "nagareyama-licensed-childcare-facilities-detail" ], "sourceId": "nagareyama-licensed-childcare-facilities-detail-xlsx", "forecastKind": "unknown", "universe": "resident_population", "basisDate": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-07-15", "methodVersion": null, "qualityFlags": [ "schema_change" ] }, { "id": "early-demand-over-resident-age3-5-2026", "datasetId": "early-childhood-demand-forecast", "severity": "warning", "status": "definition_mismatch", "publishedValue": 7046, "computedValue": 7046, "difference": 8, "note": "1号・2号の需要量合計が同年4月1日の3～5歳居住人口を上回る。計画上の算定定義や区域外利用等があり得るため、100%へ切り下げず、居住人口と同一母集団として合算しない。", "sourceIds": [ "nagareyama-children-plan-2025", "nagareyama-town-single-age-population" ], "sourceId": "nagareyama-children-plan-2025", "forecastKind": "site_estimate", "universe": "early_childhood_service_demand", "basisDate": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-07-15", "methodVersion": "nagareyama-child-cohort-hybrid-v1.0.0", "qualityFlags": [ "definition_mismatch" ] }, { "id": "early-demand-over-resident-age3-5-2027", "datasetId": "early-childhood-demand-forecast", "severity": "warning", "status": "definition_mismatch", "publishedValue": 7112, "computedValue": 7112, "difference": 185, "note": "1号・2号の需要量合計が同年4月1日の3～5歳居住人口を上回る。計画上の算定定義や区域外利用等があり得るため、100%へ切り下げず、居住人口と同一母集団として合算しない。", "sourceIds": [ "nagareyama-children-plan-2025", "nagareyama-town-single-age-population" ], "sourceId": "nagareyama-children-plan-2025", "forecastKind": "site_estimate", "universe": "early_childhood_service_demand", "basisDate": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-07-15", "methodVersion": "nagareyama-child-cohort-hybrid-v1.0.0", "qualityFlags": [ "definition_mismatch" ] }, { "id": "early-demand-over-resident-age3-5-2028", "datasetId": "early-childhood-demand-forecast", "severity": "warning", "status": "definition_mismatch", "publishedValue": 7195, "computedValue": 7195, "difference": 473, "note": "1号・2号の需要量合計が同年4月1日の3～5歳居住人口を上回る。計画上の算定定義や区域外利用等があり得るため、100%へ切り下げず、居住人口と同一母集団として合算しない。", "sourceIds": [ "nagareyama-children-plan-2025", "nagareyama-town-single-age-population" ], "sourceId": "nagareyama-children-plan-2025", "forecastKind": "site_estimate", "universe": "early_childhood_service_demand", "basisDate": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-07-15", "methodVersion": "nagareyama-child-cohort-hybrid-v1.0.0", "qualityFlags": [ "definition_mismatch" ] }, { "id": "early-demand-over-resident-age3-5-2029", "datasetId": "early-childhood-demand-forecast", "severity": "warning", "status": "definition_mismatch", "publishedValue": 7291, "computedValue": 7291, "difference": 558, "note": "1号・2号の需要量合計が同年4月1日の3～5歳居住人口を上回る。計画上の算定定義や区域外利用等があり得るため、100%へ切り下げず、居住人口と同一母集団として合算しない。", "sourceIds": [ "nagareyama-children-plan-2025", "nagareyama-town-single-age-population" ], "sourceId": "nagareyama-children-plan-2025", "forecastKind": "site_estimate", "universe": "early_childhood_service_demand", "basisDate": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-07-15", "methodVersion": "nagareyama-child-cohort-hybrid-v1.0.0", "qualityFlags": [ "definition_mismatch" ] }, { "id": "early-demand-over-resident-age3-5-2030", "datasetId": "early-childhood-demand-forecast", "severity": "warning", "status": "definition_mismatch", "publishedValue": null, "computedValue": 7222, "difference": 468, "note": "1号・2号の需要量合計が同年4月1日の3～5歳居住人口を上回る。計画上の算定定義や区域外利用等があり得るため、100%へ切り下げず、居住人口と同一母集団として合算しない。", "sourceIds": [ "nagareyama-children-plan-2025", "nagareyama-town-single-age-population" ], "sourceId": "nagareyama-children-plan-2025", "forecastKind": "site_estimate", "universe": "early_childhood_service_demand", "basisDate": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-07-15", "methodVersion": "nagareyama-child-cohort-hybrid-v1.0.0", "qualityFlags": [ "definition_mismatch" ] }, { "id": "early-demand-over-resident-age3-5-2031", "datasetId": "early-childhood-demand-forecast", "severity": "warning", "status": "definition_mismatch", "publishedValue": null, "computedValue": 7356, "difference": 477, "note": "1号・2号の需要量合計が同年4月1日の3～5歳居住人口を上回る。計画上の算定定義や区域外利用等があり得るため、100%へ切り下げず、居住人口と同一母集団として合算しない。", "sourceIds": [ "nagareyama-children-plan-2025", "nagareyama-town-single-age-population" ], "sourceId": "nagareyama-children-plan-2025", "forecastKind": "site_estimate", "universe": "early_childhood_service_demand", "basisDate": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-07-15", "methodVersion": "nagareyama-child-cohort-hybrid-v1.0.0", "qualityFlags": [ "definition_mismatch" ] }, { "id": "early-demand-over-resident-age3-5-2032", "datasetId": "early-childhood-demand-forecast", "severity": "warning", "status": "definition_mismatch", "publishedValue": null, "computedValue": 7382, "difference": 478, "note": "1号・2号の需要量合計が同年4月1日の3～5歳居住人口を上回る。計画上の算定定義や区域外利用等があり得るため、100%へ切り下げず、居住人口と同一母集団として合算しない。", "sourceIds": [ "nagareyama-children-plan-2025", "nagareyama-town-single-age-population" ], "sourceId": "nagareyama-children-plan-2025", "forecastKind": "site_estimate", "universe": "early_childhood_service_demand", "basisDate": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-07-15", "methodVersion": "nagareyama-child-cohort-hybrid-v1.0.0", "qualityFlags": [ "definition_mismatch" ] }, { "id": "ipss-basis-date-mismatch", "datasetId": "resident-child-forecast", "severity": "info", "status": "basis_date_difference", "note": "社人研推計は10月1日、流山市の1歳刻み人口と本サイト推計は4月1日基準。人数を同一基準日の実績・推計として直結せず、社人研は増減率をリベースして利用した。", "sourceIds": [ "nagareyama-town-single-age-population", "ipss-municipal-projection-2023" ], "sourceId": "nagareyama-town-single-age-population", "forecastKind": "site_estimate", "universe": "resident_population", "basisDate": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-07-15", "methodVersion": "nagareyama-child-cohort-hybrid-v1.0.0", "qualityFlags": [ "basis_date_difference" ] }, { "id": "capacity-after-2029-not-published", "datasetId": "early-childhood-capacity-forecast", "severity": "info", "status": "missing_value", "note": "2030～2032年の公式な確保方策は公表資料にない。公式値のみのシナリオではnullを保持する。", "sourceIds": [ "nagareyama-children-plan-2025" ], "sourceId": "nagareyama-children-plan-2025", "forecastKind": "site_estimate", "universe": "resident_population", "basisDate": null, "retrievedAt": "2026-07-15", "methodVersion": "nagareyama-child-cohort-hybrid-v1.0.0", "qualityFlags": [ "missing_value" ] } ] }